Munich Re Programme: Symposium 1
Interpreting Models in a Climate Change Context
This was the first symposium of the Munich Re programme at the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. It took place on Monday 20th July 2009 at the offices of Munich Re in London, with over 80 participants. The objectives, background and outline of the symposium are described below, along with links to the presentations made. An industrial briefing note based on the presentations and panel discussions at this symposium will be published in the Autumn of 2009.
Objectives:
To explore how different types of models – climate, economic, and risk models – are interpreted in the context of today’s climatic conditions
·To discuss the role of today’s models in decision-making in politics and the insurance business under current climatic conditions
·To discuss how models impact on planning and insurance-related risk assessment in the context of future climate change
·To summarise the status of models utilised in climate change assessments
·To identify approaches to future model development and interpretation which could improve their utility in the context of planning for future climate change.
Background
Models, particularly computer-based models, are now widely used in strategic, political and economic decision-making, as well as in the insurance sector. Yet different disciplines relate to, and utilise, models in very different ways. In some sectors they are seen as indicators of potential sensitivities. In others they are sometimes interpreted as providing detailed deterministic or probabilistic predictions. The relationship between models and the real world, and how this is perceived by researchers, policy-makers and industry, is critical in achieving robust decisions and minimising future risks. Decisions in the context of climate change provide a particularly substantial challenge because of the time frames involved. The multi-decadal character of the problem limits the possibility of learning from experience in terms of adapting and improving both the models and the decision-making frameworks which use them. There is nevertheless a substantial opportunity to learn from the way different types of models are interpreted and applied.
Symposium Outline
This symposium brought together experts in a range of different modelling techniques relevant to issues of climate and climate change risk management. By discussing the various approaches to interpreting model results, it explored how models are best used to improve decision-making and risk assessment. It included the following sessions, presentations and discussion panels (the titles link to pdfs of the presentations):
Session 1: Climate Models: Uncertainty Analyses and Information Content for Climate Risk Decision-Making
Modelling Climate Variability & Change|
Professor Brian Hoskins (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London)
How does the diversity in our models inform us about the uncertainty in our future?|
Professor Lenny Smith (Grantham Research Institute, LSE)
Session 2: Frameworks for the Interpretation of Models
Assessment of climate-model uncertainty through the IPCC|
Professor Arthur Petersen (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
Scientific Modelling and the Mirror of Nature|
Dr Roman Frigg (Grantham Research Institute, LSE)
Panel 1: Dr Roman Frigg, Dr Matt Huddlestone, Professor Jacqueline McGlade, Professor Arthur Petersen, Professor Leonard Smith
Session 3 : Applications of Economic Models
Economic models of climate change|
Dr Simon Dietz (Grantham Research Institute, LSE)
Using Economic Models and Coping with their Uncertainties|
Professor Geoff Heal (Grantham Research Institute, LSE and Columbia University)
Session 4 : The Use of Models in the Insurance Industry (Risk Models)
Non-Climatic and Climate-Related Nat Cat Modelling in the Insurance Industry|
Dr Eberhard Faust (Munich Re GEO Risk Research/Corporate Climate Centre)
Session 5: The Role of Models in Climate Change Policy and Decision Making
Panel discussion 2: Dr Simon Dietz, Dr Eberhard Faust, Professor Geoffrey Heal, Dr Herman Held, Roger Street
Summary of the day - Dave Stainforth (Grantham Research Institute, LSE)