Downturn dangerous

FRIDAY 13 NOVEMBER 2009

Annual global emissions of carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels in 2012 will be up to 9 per cent lower than predicted before the global economic downturn, according to a new report published today (13 November 2009) by the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. However, this lower level of emissions will only delay by 21 months the point at which world experiences 2˚C of warming above pre-industrial temperatures if ‘business as usual’ levels of greenhouse gas emissions resume after economic recovery. Many scientists believe that the impacts of climate change would be particularly dangerous if temperatures rise more than 2˚C.

The report by researchers at the Centre, hosted by the University of Leeds and London School of Economics and Political Science, concludes that even if the downturn deteriorates into a depression similar to that of the 1930s, carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels will still only be 23 per cent lower than they would have been without the downturn. This means that even a severe global depression would delay by only five years the point at which the world passes through the threshold of 2˚C of warming, compared with pre-industrial levels, if ‘business as usual’ trends in emissions resume afterwards.

Professor Andy Gouldson, who is a co-author of the report and director of the Centre at the University of Leeds, said: “Our results show that although the downturn is likely to cause a measurable decrease in global emissions, it will only delay temporarily the relentless rise in emissions that we have seen over the past few decades. If we return to ‘business as usual’ emissions after the economic crisis is over, the profound and severe risks of climate change impacts will continue to grow. So the global downturn does not remove the urgent need for a strong agreement to be reached at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in December.”

The estimates of the effects of the downturn on emissions were produced by a simple modelling approach that is broadly consistent with other economic studies, and which uses assumptions that are compatible with projections made by the International Monetary Fund about the global economy. The report notes that although other studies have predicted smaller falls in emissions due to the downturn, the decreases might be larger if there is a continuation through the economic slowdown of the downward trend in emissions per unit of economic output (carbon intensity), or if the underlying trend in economic growth changes.

UK emissions are also predicted in the report to be up to 9 per cent lower in 2012 than would have been expected without the recession. A reduction of 9 per cent would occur if the downward trend in carbon intensity continues through the recession because of, for example, the impact of new policies and improvements in energy efficiency. However, the report also points out that UK businesses with newer buildings and equipment tend to be more energy efficient. Any reduction in investments in new buildings and equipment as a result of the recession would slow down improvements in the energy efficiency of UK businesses, and would lead to emissions being lower by less than 9 per cent.

Professor Gouldson said: “It is clear that the recession has made it easier for the UK to meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. But that is no reason for complacency, given that the recession and lower energy prices may have slowed down investments in energy efficiency by UK businesses.”

The report was commissioned by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. It was published today ahead of a public debate hosted at the University of Leeds, with a panel including the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP, and Rt Hon John Prescott MP.

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. The ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk) is hosted by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science. The Centre's mission is to advance public and private action on climate change through innovative and rigorous research. It is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (http://www.esrc.ac.uk) and Munich Re (http://www.munichre.com/en/homepage/default.aspx).
2. The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is the UK's largest organisation for funding research on economic and social issues. It supports independent, high quality research which has an impact on business, the public sector and the third sector. The ESRC's planned total expenditure in 2009/10 is £204 million. At any one time the ESRC supports over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic institutions and independent research institutes. More at: http://www.esrcsocietytoday.ac.uk.
3. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is Scotland’s environmental regulator, responsible for regulating activities that can cause harmful pollution, and monitoring the quality of Scotland’s air, land and water. As well as working with business and industry to enable customers to comply with legislation and good practice, SEPA is also responsible for delivering Scotland’s flood warning system, helping to implement Scotland’s National Waste Strategy, and regulating the keeping, use, accumulation and disposal of radioactive substances. More at: http://www.sepa.org.uk/.