Article by Lord Stern in 'New Scientist' magazine

WEDNESDAY 21 JANUARY 2009

Global economic downturn must not delay us from tackling climate change, says Lord Stern

Spending on low-carbon technologies to improve energy efficiency should be brought forward, and not delayed because of the global financial crisis, according to an article| by Nicolas Stern published today in ‘New Scientist’ magazine.

In the opinion piece, Lord Stern, who was head of the UK Government Economic Service between 2003 and 2007 and who is now chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, writes: “While the global economic downturn could distract us from the bigger task of tackling climate change, it is an opportunity to bring forward investments in low-carbon technologies while costs are lower. It can provide job opportunities in the short run in key sectors where resources are idle, such as construction. Investments that improve energy efficiency will also yield benefits when power and heating prices increase again during economic recovery. In the long-term, investments in low-carbon technologies could provide sustainable and well-founded economic growth, in contrast to the recent booms, and eventual busts, driven by flaky dotcom ventures or inflated house prices.”

He adds: “Continued unchecked, emissions and high-carbon growth are not sustainable. In 2009, we have a real chance to set a path towards a low-carbon future. It is the only realistic future for growth and for overcoming world poverty.”

Lord Stern also warns that the target for stabilising levels of greenhouse gases should be lower than he previously recommended. He writes: “Since my colleagues and I published ‘The Stern Review’ in 2006, it has become apparent that the risks and potential costs of the impacts of climate change are even greater than we originally recognised. Global emissions of greenhouse gases are growing more quickly than projected, the ability of the planet to absorb those gases now appears lower than was assumed, the potential increases in temperatures due to rising gas concentrations seem higher, and the physical impacts of a warming planet are appearing at a faster rate than expected.”

“So, whereas ‘The Stern Review’ recommended that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases should be stabilized within a range of 450 to 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide-equivalent, it now seems that our target should not exceed 500 ppm. That’s if we are to keep down the risks of potentially catastrophic impacts which could result from average global temperatures rising 4˚C or more above pre-industrial levels.”

Lord Stern points out that the new target has clear implications for greenhouse gas emissions: “This means that annual global emissions must peak within the next 15 years before falling to half their 1990 level by 2050. Beyond that, we will need to limit human additions to atmospheric greenhouse gases to under 10 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent per year, compared with the current 45 gigatonnes.

However, Lord Stern is optimistic about the prospects of achieving cuts in emissions: “Such reductions present a significant challenge but they are affordable and manageable, costing about 2 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year. Indeed with good policy and increasingly rapid technical progress, the costs may be considerably lower. The leading industrialised nations are due to meet in December this year in Copenhagen at the next annual gathering of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and if they agree to cut their emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050 compared with 1990, this will be an essential step towards meeting the challenge.”

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham) was launched at the London School of Economics and Political Science in October 2008. It is funded by The Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment (http://www.granthamfoundation.org/).
   
    
2. The ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk) is hosted by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science. It will be officially launched at the University of Leeds on 27 January 2009. The Centre is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (http://www.esrc.ac.uk) and Munich Re (http://www.munichre.com/en/homepage/default.aspx).
   
    
3. New Scientist has undergone a redesign which is launched this week. It can be found online at www.newscientist.com. A digital sampler of the magazine will go live online later this week.