Blueprint For Safer Planet

MONDAY 30 MARCH 2009

Stern presents blueprint for managing climate change and boosting prosperity.

A blueprint for successfully managing global climate change, promoting sustainable economic growth, and building political commitment to act is presented for the first time in a new book by Nicholas Stern, due to be published on 2 April 2009. In 'A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How to manage climate change and create a new era of progress and prosperity', which will be published on the same date as the G20 London Summit, Lord Stern of Brentford warns: "The levels of warming that we risk would be profoundly damaging for all countries of the world, rich and poor. A transformation of the physical geography of the world also changes the human geography: where we live and how we live our lives".

He adds: "These huge risks can be reduced drastically at reasonable cost, but only if we act together and follow clear and well-structured policies starting now. The cost of action is much lower than the cost of inaction – in other words, delay would become the anti-growth strategy. The low-carbon world we must and can create will be much more attractive than business as usual. Not only will growth be sustained, it will be cleaner, safer, quieter and more biodiverse."

Lord Stern, author of the landmark report 'The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review' in 2006, stresses that efforts to tackle climate change must not hold back economic growth in developing countries: "The two greatest problems of our times – overcoming poverty in the developing world and combating climate change – are inextricably linked. Failure to tackle one will undermine efforts to deal with the other: ignoring climate change would result in an increasingly hostile environment for development and poverty reduction, but to try to deal with climate change by shackling growth and development would damage, probably fatally, the cooperation between developed and developing countries that is vital to success."

Lord Stern, who chairs the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, points out: "An effective response to the global challenge of climate change requires international collaboration on a scale which is unprecedented. It requires a global deal." He continues: "Climate change is an inequitable phenomenon: rich countries are responsible for most of the past emissions but developing countries are hit earliest and hardest. Climate change is likely to significantly disrupt their development. Looking forward, however, it will be the currently developing countries that will be responsible for most of the growth of emissions. Unless a deal is truly global it cannot work."

Lord Stern writes: "That global deal must be effective, in that it cuts back emissions on the scale required; it must be efficient, in keeping costs down; and it must be equitable in relation to abilities and responsibilities, taking into account both the origins and impact of climate change." The book outlines six key elements for a successful global deal:

• cuts by at least 50 per cent in global emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 relative to 1990, with developed countries setting their targets now of reductions of at least 80 per cent;
• commitments by developing countries, subject to the performance of developed nations, to take on emissions reduction targets by 2020, and building strong climate action plans now;
• adoption of country emissions reductions and carbon trading schemes, designed to integrate trading mechanisms with other countries;
• strong initiatives to halt deforestation;
• development, demonstration and sharing of existing and future technologies, such as wind power and carbon capture and storage; and
• delivery by rich countries on previous commitments about overseas development assistance.

He states: "The deal should be considered as an integrated package, which is necessary if the essential principles of effectiveness, efficiency and equity are to be met. This is not a menu from which selections can be made or from which 'nuggets' can be extracted."

Lord Stern describes the next United Nations climate change conference, due to take place in Copenhagen in December 2009, as "the most important international gathering since the Second World War" and calls for countries to agree a strong global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He draws attention to recent progress on climate change in China and the United States, and writes: "There is now a real possibility that an effective and mutually supportive understanding between the US and China could grow vigorously during 2009. That will be critical to the prospects for global agreement."

Lord Stern identifies the barriers to progress on climate change: "Central among these obstacles will be the argument that the first priority is to deal with the current economic crisis and that action on climate change can be postponed. Often this argument comes from those who are, in any case, not keen on taking action and who use the economic crisis as an excuse. But the argument is wrong and should be confronted."

He adds: "Let us organise our emergence from the crisis by investing in the shorter-term projects, such as energy efficiency, which can generate demand and employment quickly and by bringing forward some of the energy and transport infrastructure investments which can lay the foundations for medium- and long-term growth."

Lord Stern also writes: "Above all, we will need political leadership which is not only thoughtful and measured but also courageous and inspirational. That leadership must set out the compelling scientific and economic case for strong action. It must show not only the severe dangers of a planet in peril, but also that if we act sensibly and strongly, starting now, we can dramatically reduce those risks at reasonable cost. That leadership must be courageous too in confronting the narrow interests which will make a lot of noise and argue for postponement of action, or in some cases for little or no action."

But he also states that politicians should not act alone: "Individuals, firms and communities should not just wait for governments to sort things out. There is much that they can and should do to respond to the risks and opportunities that climate change presents, to work together and to mobilise politically to put pressure on governments to act on the scale required". He emphasises the "power of the example" in motivating action on climate change: "By making it easy to take action, and by providing examples of how to do it, people can be motivated to make a responsible choice."

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. 'A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How to manage climate change and create a new era of progress and prosperity' by Nicholas Stern will be published by Random House on 2 April 2009. Copies are available for £16.99 and can be ordered from http://www.rbooks.co.uk/product.aspx?id=1847920373.
    
2. The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham) was established at the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2008. The Institute brings together international expertise on economics, as well as finance, geography, the environment, international development and political economy, to create a world-leading centre for policy-relevant research, teaching and training in climate change and the environment. It is funded by The Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment (http://www.granthamfoundation.org/).
    
3. The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk) was established by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2008. Its mission is to advance public and private action on climate change through rigorous, innovative research. The Centre is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (http://www.esrc.ac.uk) and Munich Re (http://www.munichre.com/en/homepage/default.aspx).