Progress has been made on tackling climate change since Copenhagen summit, says Nicholas Stern

 

16 March 2010 

Progress is being made on plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and for providing financial support for developing countries to tackle climate change, Nicholas Stern will say today in a public lecture at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), as part of the eighth annual Festival of Social Science organised by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). 

Lord Stern, who is chair of the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science and the University of Leeds, will tell his audience that important advances have been made through pledges to cut emissions as part of the Copenhagen Accord and through the establishment by the United Nations Secretary-General of a High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing. 

Lord Stern will say: "The climate change conference in Copenhagen in December was in many ways disappointing, but the Copenhagen Accord does provide a platform for going forward because it contains, in essence, most of the key points for a global deal. The challenge is to build quickly and strongly on that platform. 

"We must recognise that achieving a reasonable chance of not exceeding a rise of 2˚C requires global emissions to peak before 2020, and to be more than 50 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050, with rich countries' emissions 80 per cent below. And thus the country-by-country emissions targets must be consistent with global ambitions. The key challenge this year, before the next United Nations climate change conference in Mexico, is to translate the 2˚C temperature goal into emissions reductions. We must apply the discipline of an overall global annual emissions budget of less than 35 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent in 2030 and less than 20 billion tonnes in 2050, compared with nearly 50 billion tonnes now: percentages can sometimes mislead. 

"Pledges of action have been made as part of the Copenhagen Accord by 71 countries which together account for more than 80 per cent of current emissions. The targets by developed countries and intended actions by developing countries for 2020 are a few billion tonnes short of putting us on a path that offers a reasonable chance of avoiding a temperature rise of more than 2˚C. However, if these pledges, and no more, were delivered, very rapid, and thus more expensive, action after 2020 could give us a chance of catching up. There is certainly no room for complacency, and it would be better if stronger cuts could be made in the next decade. However, the actions that have been promised so far are significant, and would take us, in 2020, about two-thirds of the way from 'business as usual' to where we should be." 

Lord Stern will say: "One of the other key aspects of the Copenhagen Accord was its recognition of the need to provide US$30 billion over the next three years and US$100 billion per year by 2020, to help developing countries make the transition to low-carbon growth, including combating deforestation, and adapt to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided. I am very pleased that the United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has launched a High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing to explore options for how significant financial support for developing countries should be raised, and I am delighted to serve on the Group under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Prime Minister Gordon Brown." 

"There has been progress on tackling deforestation through REDD+. We have also seen other important initiatives, such as the announcement last week by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, that his staff are working on the possibility for a 'Green Fund' which would have the capacity to raise US$100 billion per year by 2020, based on Special Drawing Rights of the IMF, to assist climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries." 

"The Mexican Presidency of the next United Nations climate change conference has established a contact group, building on the 28 to 30 countries that came together towards the end of the meeting in Copenhagen. Thus we now have strong analytical work underway and stronger processes for transforming this work into an agreement, in order to feed more constructively into the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Copenhagen Accord is providing a firm platform for moving forward." 

Lord Stern will conclude: "But problems do remain. To overcome the difficulties, distrust and acrimony encountered, it is crucial that there be mutual understanding of the ambitions, economics, politics and decision-making mechanisms of other countries. We must also understand the great sense of inequity felt by developing countries that are struggling to overcome poverty, as well as the great risks posed by climate change and the real and attractive opportunities for low-carbon growth." 

"We know what we have to do as a world in 2010. Action is urgently needed. This must be a year of strong decisions." 

Notes for Editors

1. Lord Nicholas Stern was Second Permanent Secretary at HM Treasury between 2003 and 2007. He also served as Head of the Government Economic Service, head of the review of economics of climate change (the results of which were published in 'The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review' in October 2006), and director of policy and research for the Commission for Africa. His previous posts included Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist at the World Bank, and Chief Economist and Special Counsellor to the President at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. He was recommended as a non-party-political life peer by the UK House of Lords Appointments Commission in October 2007. Baron Stern of Brentford was introduced in December 2007 to the House of Lords, where he sits on the independent cross-benches.
2. The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy is hosted by the University of Leeds and LSE. It was officially launched at the University of Leeds on 27 January 2009. The Centre is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and Munich Re. Lord Stern is also chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, which was launched at LSE in October 2008. It is funded by The Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. He is also I.G. Patel Professor of Economics and Government and Director of the India Observatory at LSE.
3. The ESRC Festival of Social Science provides a fascinating insight into how research influences our social, economic and political lives - both now and in the future. It runs from 12 to 21 March 2010, alongside National Science and Engineering Week. In its eighth year the 2010 Festival is proving the most popular and exciting yet, consisting of over 130 events across the UK, in over 40 cities. Events are aimed at a range of different audiences, including policy makers, business, the media, the general public and students of all ages. Events come in a variety of formats from traditional lectures and exhibitions to theatrical performances, film screenings and topical debates. Press releases detailing some of the varied events are available at the Festival website.
4. The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is the UK's largest organisation for funding research on economic and social issues. It supports independent, high quality research which has an impact on business, the public sector and the third sector. The ESRC's planned total expenditure in 2009/10 is £204 million. At any one time the ESRC supports over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic institutions and independent research institutes. You can now follow updates from the ESRC on Twitter, including new funding calls as they are posted, press releases, events and more.