Publications

Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Working paper by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 12 Jan 2018

The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise deep uncertainty in future rainfall change. The method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery river basin in Karnataka, Southern India.

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Uncertainty and ambiguity in environmental economics: conceptual issues

Working paper by Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner on 26 Sep 2017

When it comes to climate change and biodiversity loss, standard decision-making tools may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. read more »

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A review of the economics of adaptation and climate-resilient development

Working paper by Paul Watkiss on 14 Sep 2015

This working paper aims to inform the development community about the current state-of-knowledge and emerging thinking on the economics of adaptation and the application to development. read more »

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