Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Working paper by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 12 Jan 2018

The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise deep uncertainty in future rainfall change. The method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery river basin in Karnataka, Southern India.