Hurricane Forecasting: skill and value

Date: 15 May 2012
Venue: University of Leeds

The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) hosted an academic symposium on Hurricane Forecasting, with a focus on questions relating to the construction, evaluation and use of hurricane forecasts on seasonal scales.

The aim of the symposium was to present the findings from the LSE’s work in this area, funded by the CCCEP Munich Re programme, to stakeholders and other users.

Participants from the climate research and forecast user communities included representatives from the UK Met Office, UCL, Imperial College, KNMI, the Bermuda Institute of Biological Sciences, the William J Clinton Foundation, Christian Aid, as well as members of the Munich Re programme at LSE and Munich Re itself.

Various aspects of the end-to-end process of forecast production and implementation – such as lead time, forecast targets, and good practice in forecast verification – were covered in detail. The principle focus was on the skill and value of Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts, but other areas of extreme weather risk, such as floods, landslides, and drought, were also presented and discussed.

LSE research in this area continues to be shaped by the requirements of forecast users and the knowledge and capabilities of forecast providers. Participants were invited to share knowledge to assist LSE in their understanding of the needs of decision-makers when communicating uncertainty, and distinguishing between forecast skill and value.

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