Quantifying the uncertainty in economic impacts of climate change and increasing the economic relevance of climate modelling

Project 5b

LSE Leads: Dr Simon Dietz and Professor Leonard Smith

Post-Doctoral Research Officers: Falk Niehorster and Anthony Millner

Both adaptation and mitigation planning involve the interpretation of scientific models.

This project provides a more realistic quantitative evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of current climate information, with the aim of leading to the long-term improvement of such information by providing an alternative design for climate model experiments, which targets information for decision support rather than the advancement of science.

An immediate objective is to provide a firmer, less reactive basis for climate decisions, which admits the current level of uncertainty in economic impacts of climate change, thereby decreasing vulnerability due to over-confidence in the near term.

The long-term objective is to widen the scope of climate science products to provide information of more relevance to insurance and adaptation activities.