Envisioning adaptive strategies to change: participatory scenarios for agro-pastoral semi-arid systems in Nicaragua

Abstract of Working Paper 38 Historically, the semi-arid socio-ecological systems of dry Centro American corridor have proven resilient to pressures. In the last century, these systems, however, have experienced huge environmental and socio-economic changes that have increased the vulnerability of local livelihoods to shocks and perturbations. New approaches are needed to capture complex, uncertain, cross-scale […]





Anticipating vulnerability to climate change in dryland pastoral systems: using dynamic systems models for the Kalahari

Abstract of Working Paper 32 It is vitally important to identify agro-ecosystems that may cease functioning due to changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving towards thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. We explore these challenges by analysing […]



Noodles at any cost: food self-sufficiency and natural hazards in China

Abstract of Working Paper 30 China’s role on the global grain market is expected to increase as the demand for food and feed grows, both within and outside the country. This role could also be affected by unexpected crop failures caused by natural hazards. This paper uses agricultural production (rice, wheat, maize, tubers, soybeans and […]