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Topic: Climate science, uncertainty and risk

Water resources management: Planning for an uncertain climate and demand regime using Info-Gap decision theory

Korteling B; Dessai S; Kapelan Z (2011). In: Urban Water Management: Challenges and Oppurtunities – 11th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2011, 1, .


Global cloud condensation nuclei influenced by carbonaceous combustion aerosol

Spracklen, D.V., Carslaw, K.S., Pöschl, U., Rap, A., and Forster, P.M. September 2011. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, v.11, pp.9067-9087.


A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies

Over the past decade, growth in insurance demand in the BRICS economies has been a key driver of global non-life premium growth. Current forecasts suggest that … read more »


What role for ‘long-term’ insurance in adaptation? An analysis of the prospects for and pricing of multi-year insurance contracts

Multi-year insurance has been proposed as a tool to incentivise policyholders to invest in property level adaptation. In a world of rising natural catastrophe risks, such … read more »


A representation result for choice under conscious unawareness

There are many examples in policy making, investment and day-to-day life where the set of contingencies the decision maker can conceive of does not resolve all … read more »


Scientific uncertainty: a user’s guide

There are different kinds of uncertainty. This paper outlines some of the various ways that uncertainty enters science, focusing on uncertainty in climate science and weather … read more »


Climate change impacts on future photovoltaic and concentrated solar power energy output

Crook, J.A., Jones, L.A., Forster, P.M., and Crook, R. July 2011. Energy & Environmental Science, v.4, pp.3101-3109.


The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established ‘social cost of carbon’ (SCC) for analysis of federal regulations in the United … read more »


Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments

Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation … read more »


Insuring climate catastrophes in Florida: an analysis of insurance pricing and capacity under various scenarios of climate change and adaptation measures

The series of devastating natural disasters around the world during the past few years has raised questions as to the role of the public and private … read more »


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