Scientific uncertainty: a user’s guide

Produced as part of the The Munich Re programme: evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector CCCEP research programme theme

Also known as Munich Re Technical Paper: 9


There are different kinds of uncertainty. This paper outlines some of the various ways that uncertainty enters science, focusing on uncertainty in climate science and weather prediction.

The paper goes on to show how we cope with some of these sources of error through sophisticated modelling techniques. The paper shows how to maintain confidence in the face of error.

Seamus Bradley