Publications

Insurance as a catalyst for using climate risk information for government planning and decision-making: A framework for analysing drivers and barriers, tested against evidence emerging from Sub-Saharan Africa

Working paper by Swenja Surminski, Jon Barnes, Katharine Vincent on 8 Oct 2019

This paper from the UMFULA programme investigates the potential catalyst role of insurance in adaptation to climate change in a developing country context that is characterised by low insurance penetration and a relatively low level of government planning, analysing the problem from the perspective of insurers in South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania. read more »


From individual fuzzy cognitive maps to agent based models: modelling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity

Working paper by Sara Mehryar, Richard Sliuzas, Nina Schwarz, Ali Sharifi, Martin van Maarseveen on 29 Aug 2019

The authors of this paper develop an integrated modelling methodology combining an Agent-Based Model with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping and use it to simulate impacts of policy options addressing the problems of water scarcity for a farming community in Rafsanjan, Iran. read more »


Aligning national and international climate targets

Policy publication by Michal Nachmany, Emily Mangan on 29 Oct 2018

Quantified national targets are crucial to the credibility of climate change policies – for design, implementation, tracking and revision. This policy brief compares the quantified targets in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement and those in national laws and policies and makes recommendations for improving consistency and clarity. read more »







Climate information needs in Southern Africa: a review

Working paper by Daleen Lötter, Claire Davis, Emma Archer van Garderen, Katharine Vincent, Joanna Pardoe, Mark Tadross, Willem Landman, Sabine Stuart-Hill, Graham Jewitt on 3 Jul 2018

There are currently challenges to generating climate services relating both to the supply of climate science and its application. This paper from the UMFULA project reviews the current availability of climate information in Southern Africa and assesses the requirements of a variety of end users in the region, highlighting the importance of creating user-tailored climate services. read more »