A new north–south divide for climate knowledge? A case study of climate projections in UNFCCC’s National Communications

Produced as part of the Managing climate risks and uncertainties and strengthening climate services CCCEP research programme theme

A global north–south divide in the production of climate knowledge exists. While the north is home to a variety of climate models, data infrastructures and climate experts, the south often lacks these attributes.

In this paper the authors use a unique global dataset, the UNFCCC National Communications, to perform a global documentary analysis of scientific submissions from 189 individual countries.

The research calls for a more nuanced and critical use of the north–south divide, and highlights that well-intended modelling and training efforts may unwittingly restrict, rather than foster, scientific capacities in the global south.

Summary of key findings

Focusing on the production and use of climate projections, the research both supports, and importantly, challenges such a clear-cut north–south divide. For instance, the global north in general uses more complex climate modelling techniques, yet numerous countries in the global south have a higher scientific capacity than some northern ones.
Beyond scientific capacities, the south emphasises mid-term timeframes (before 2060) more relevant for their adaptation decisions whereas the north prefers a long-term view and is generally more optimistic of global mitigation efforts.
While the use of Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles is widespread in the global north and south, the south’s access to climate models is restricted to mobile climate projection tools.
Although modelling tools such as PRECIS enable countries with little scientific capacity to produce useful climate risk assessments, these tools may hide a new divide between the global north and global south. Unable to customise inputs, such as country-specific observations or modelling information, the global south might become dependent upon the climate modelling tools circulated by the global north.