Publications

Insurance as a catalyst for using climate risk information for government planning and decision-making: A framework for analysing drivers and barriers, tested against evidence emerging from Sub-Saharan Africa

Working paper by Swenja Surminski, Jon Barnes, Katharine Vincent on 8 Oct 2019

This paper from the UMFULA programme investigates the potential catalyst role of insurance in adaptation to climate change in a developing country context that is characterised by low insurance penetration and a relatively low level of government planning, analysing the problem from the perspective of insurers in South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania. read more »




Creating useful and usable weather and climate information – insights from Participatory Scenario Planning in Malawi

Working paper by Dorothy Tembo-Nhlema, Katharine Vincent, Rebecka Henriksson Malinga on 9 Sep 2019

This paper outlines experiences with Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP), which has been used in Malawi as a method to bring together producers and users of weather and climate information to co-produce sector-specific advisories of weather information to make it both useful and usable to the different user groups, including farmers. read more »


Emissions trading with rolling horizons

Working paper by Simon Quemin, Raphaël Trotignon on 30 Aug 2019

The authors of this paper develop a model to evaluate first, the market developments in the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) over 2008–2017 ex-post and second, the performances of main features of the EU ETS reforms that took place in 2018, ex-ante. read more »


From individual fuzzy cognitive maps to agent based models: modelling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity

Working paper by Sara Mehryar, Richard Sliuzas, Nina Schwarz, Ali Sharifi, Martin van Maarseveen on 29 Aug 2019

The authors of this paper develop an integrated modelling methodology combining an Agent-Based Model with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping and use it to simulate impacts of policy options addressing the problems of water scarcity for a farming community in Rafsanjan, Iran. read more »



Pricing ambiguity in catastrophe risk insurance

Working paper by Simon Dietz, Falk Niehörster on 23 May 2019

The authors of this paper apply a newly developed insurance pricing model to two catastrophe model data sets relating to hurricane risk in two locations in the Atlantic basin, estimating ambiguity loads – the extra insurance premium due to ambiguity – and showing how these depend on the insurer’s attitude to ambiguity. read more »



The global consumer incidence of carbon pricing: evidence from trade

Working paper by Lutz Sager on 4 Apr 2019

This paper estimates the global distribution of the costs to consumers from carbon pricing, finding that some policies may be considered regressive for their burden on poorer consumers – but that the benefits from mitigating climate change may weaken or reverse the regressive effect. read more »