Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe: organisational needs and preferences

Seasonal climate forecasts of European winters now outperform historical averages.If the quality of seasonal and interannual forecasts continues to improve, their use is likely to increase. A challenge for forecast providers will be to communicate the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to a wider audience. We report the results of a user-needs survey conducted with 50 European organisations from a variety of sectors to understand users’ information needs, preferences and level of understanding of forecast uncertainty.