Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socio-Economic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

Research article by Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, David Stainforth on 18 Jan 2018

Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this […]

Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Working paper by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 12 Jan 2018

The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise deep uncertainty in future rainfall change. The method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery river basin in Karnataka, Southern India.

Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

Research article by Swenja Surminski on 5 Oct 2017

Improving society’s ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to … read more »

Geoengineering at the ‘edge of the world’: exploring perceptions of ocean fertilization through the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation

Working paper by Kate Elizabeth Gannon, Mike Hulme on 28 Sep 2017

This paper describes an opportunistic case study of the 2012 Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation’s ocean fertilization project. Anchored in notions of place and identity, the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation marks a novel entry point into social research on geoengineering, which enables a more situated engagement with ocean fertilization, in keeping with geographical traditions. The paper […]

Uncertainty and ambiguity in environmental economics: conceptual issues

Working paper by Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner on 26 Sep 2017

When it comes to climate change and biodiversity loss, standard decision-making tools may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. read more »

Insurance, public assistance and household flood risk reduction: a comparative study of Austria, England and Romania

Research article by Swenja Surminski on 4 Sep 2017

In light of increasing losses from floods many researchers and policy makers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study … read more »

Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced cereal losses in India?