Publications


Steering the climate system: an extended comment

Working paper by Linus Mattauch, Richard Millar, Frederick van der Ploeg, Armon Rezai, Anselm Schultes, Frank Venmans, Nico Bauer, Simon Dietz, Ottmar Edenhofer, Niall Farrell, Cameron Hepburn, Gunnar Luderer, Jacquelyn Pless, Fiona Spuler, Nicholas Stern, Alexander Teytelboym on 4 Jan 2019

The authors of this comment respond to a recent argument put forward by Lemoine and Rudik (2017), that it is efficient to delay reducing carbon emissions because there is substantial inertia in the climate system. Mattauch et al. show that there is no such inertia, which means there is no lag between carbon emissions and warming. read more »




Recommendations for improving the treatment of risk and uncertainty in economic estimates of climate impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report

Research article by Thomas Stoerk, Gernot Wagner, Bob Ward on 1 Aug 2018

Large discrepancies persist between projections of the physical impacts of climate change and economic damage estimates. These discrepancies increase with increasing global average temperature projections. Based on this observation, … read more »



Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Research article by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 26 Jun 2018

Knowledge about regional and local climate change can inform climate risk assessments and adaptation decisions. However, estimates of future precipitation change at the regional and local level are deeply uncertain for many parts of the world. A novel methodology was developed that uses climate processes and expert elicitation to build narratives of future regional precipitation […]



Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socio-Economic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

Research article by Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, David Stainforth on 18 Jan 2018

Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this […]


Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Working paper by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 12 Jan 2018

The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise deep uncertainty in future rainfall change. The method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery river basin in Karnataka, Southern India.