Publications



Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data

Research article by Peter Taylor on 27 May 2015

Bright JM, Smith CJ, Taylor PG, Crook R Stochastic. (2015). Solar Energy, vol. 115, pp.229-242. Highlights A sun obscured methodology to generate 1 min resolution irradiance is proposed. A novel approach to generating cloud cover is presented. The use of multiple Markov chains offers improvement to resource modelling. Diurnal okta number variability gives the largest transition […]



Climate stories: why do climate scientists and sceptical voices participate in the climate debate?

Working paper by Amelia Sharman, Candice Howarth on 21 Apr 2015

This paper explores the polarised debate between climate scientists and sceptical voices. It concludes that focusing on overlapping rationales, such as a sense of duty to publicly engage and recognition that political factors are a key topic of disagreement, as well as encouraging individuals to think critically about their own beliefs, may help to encourage constructive discussion and reduce polarisation. read more »


Novel and improved insurance instruments for risk reduction

Working paper by Swenja Surminski, Florence Crick, Jillian Eldridge, Paul Hudson, Jeroen Aerts, Wouter Botzen, Jaroslav Mysiak, Carlos Dionisio Pérez-Blanco, Francisco Rego, Robin Nicolai, Carlos Neto, Reinhard Mechler, António Macedo, Anna Lorant, Conceição Colaço on 30 Mar 2015

In the context of natural disaster insurance and risk reduction this paper looks at how to assess existing insurance offerings and how to design new schemes. read more »



Endogenous growth, convexity of damages and climate risk: how Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions

Research article by Simon Dietz, Nicholas Stern on 23 Mar 2015

‘To slow or not to slow’ (Nordhaus, 1991) was the first economic appraisal of greenhouse gas emissions abatement and founded a large literature on a topic of worldwide importance. We offer our assessment of the original article and trace its legacy, in particular Nordhaus’s later series of ‘DICE’ models. From this work, many have drawn the conclusion that an efficient global emissions abatement policy comprises modest and modestly increasing controls. We use DICE itself to provide an initial illustration that, if the analysis is extended to take more strongly into account three essential elements of the climate problem – the endogeneity of growth, the convexity of damage and climate risk – optimal policy comprises strong controls. read more »