Over the last 20 years, climate models have been developed to an impressive degree of complexity, and have become core tools in the study of human-induced climate change.
Quantitative climate predictions have come to motivate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and they have also assumed a pivotal role in planning adaptation to climate change.
But significant uncertainty remains in predicting future climate change, even using the most complex computer simulation models.
In spite of recent progress in quantifying our uncertainty about future climate change, fundamental questions remain about the validity and reliability of evidence from complex climate models. In fact, it is not at all clear that even the most sophisticated of today’s complex climate models can provide decision-relevant probabilities.
This research programme occupies a pivotal position in the work of the entire Centre, by clarifying the rules of evidence use in research programme 2, programme 3 and programme 4.
The Programme Leader for Developing climate science and economics is Lenny Smith
The programme is comprised of three projects, which, in turn, are divided into further project sections: