Ambiguity and climate policy

Working paper by Antony Millner, Simon Dietz, Geoffrey Heal on 1 Dec 2010

Also known as Munich Re Technical Paper 4. Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. Yet our knowledge of the impacts of climate policy may not be of sufficient quality to justify probabilistic beliefs. In such circumstances, it has been argued that the axioms of expected utility theory […]

Of models and meanings: cultural resilience in socio-ecological systems

Working paper by Todd Crane on 1 Oct 2010

Abstract of Working Paper 37 Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of socio-ecological systems. However, modelling tends to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems, which obscures the diversity of performative social behaviours and normative cultural positions of actors within the modelled system. The fact that changes in the biophysical system can […]

Envisioning adaptive strategies to change: participatory scenarios for agro-pastoral semi-arid systems in Nicaragua

Working paper by Federica Ravera, David Tarrasón, Elisabeth Simelton on 1 Oct 2010

Abstract of Working Paper 38 Historically, the semi-arid socio-ecological systems of dry Centro American corridor have proven resilient to pressures. In the last century, these systems, however, have experienced huge environmental and socio-economic changes that have increased the vulnerability of local livelihoods to shocks and perturbations. New approaches are needed to capture complex, uncertain, cross-scale […]

Anticipating vulnerability to climate change in dryland pastoral systems: using dynamic systems models for the Kalahari

Working paper by Andy Dougill, Evan Fraser, Mark Reed on 1 Sep 2010

Abstract of Working Paper 32 It is vitally important to identify agro-ecosystems that may cease functioning due to changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving towards thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. We explore these challenges by analysing […]