Publications

Adaptation to climate change and economic growth in developing countries

Working paper by Antony Millner, Simon Dietz on 1 Sep 2011

The global climate is changing, and will continue to do so even if greenhouse gas emissions are dramatically curbed. Economies are therefore faced with the challenge of adapting to climate change. This challenge is particularly important in developing countries, which, due to a combination of unfortunate geography and high sensitivity, are most vulnerable to climate […]

Resilient or vulnerable livelihoods? Assessing livelihood dynamics and trajectories in rural Botswana

Working paper by Susannah Mary Sallu, Dr Chasca Twyman, Lindsay Stringer on 1 Sep 2011

Abstract of Working Paper 33 We explore the resilience and vulnerability of livelihoods within two different socio-ecological dryland contexts of Botswana over the last 30 years. We draw on primary field data sources, including oral histories, livelihood surveys, ecological surveys, as well as documented evidence of environmental, socioeconomic and institutional dynamics, to identify a broad […]

A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies

Working paper by Swenja Surminski, Nicola Ranger on 1 Sep 2011

Over the past decade, growth in insurance demand in the BRICS economies has been a key driver of global non-life premium growth. Current forecasts suggest that … read more »

What role for ‘long-term’ insurance in adaptation? An analysis of the prospects for and pricing of multi-year insurance contracts

Working paper by Trevor Maynard, Nicola Ranger on 1 Sep 2011

Multi-year insurance has been proposed as a tool to incentivise policyholders to invest in property level adaptation. In a world of rising natural catastrophe risks, such … read more »

Forecasting non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies: a preliminary evaluation of the impacts of income and climate change

Working paper by Nicola Ranger, Andrew Williamson on 1 Sep 2011

Insurance demand is driven by many factors, but for the emerging economies, one of the most significant historical drivers of growth has been income per capita. … read more »

A representation result for choice under conscious unawareness

Working paper by Simon Dietz, Oliver Walker on 1 Sep 2011

There are many examples in policy making, investment and day-to-day life where the set of contingencies the decision maker can conceive of does not resolve all … read more »

The influence of academics as insider-nongovernmental actors in the Post-Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Negotiations: a matter of timing, network and policy-entrepreneurial capabilities

Working paper by on 1 Sep 2011

Nongovernmental actors influence negotiations with insider or outsider strategies. Academics are valued by government delegates for the neutrality and expertise they can provide as policy advisors … read more »

Market-based instruments and technology choices: a synthesis

Working paper by Raphael Calel on 10 Aug 2011

Market-based instruments are widely used to encourage innovation and investment in cleaner technologies. Using a simple analytical framework and graphical representations, this paper provides a theoretical … read more »

Scientific uncertainty: a user’s guide

Working paper by Seamus Bradley on 1 Aug 2011

There are different kinds of uncertainty. This paper outlines some of the various ways that uncertainty enters science, focusing on uncertainty in climate science and weather … read more »

Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain crops to drought

Working paper by Elisabeth Simelton, Evan Fraser, Mette Termansen, Tim Benton, Simon Gosling, Andrew South, Nigel Arnell, Andy Challinor, Andy Dougill, Piers Forster on 1 Aug 2011

Abstract from Working Paper No. 29 The impact of climate change on agriculture depends on the environmental and socio-economic contexts in which the changes occur. However, current tools to anticipate climate change impacts focus almost entirely on biological and environmental processes. For example, most large-scale crop models can identify where yields are sensitive to new […]