Publications

Do carbon offsets offset carbon?

Working paper by Raphael Calel, Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Matthieu Glachant on 3 Nov 2021

In this paper the authors develop and implement a new method for identifying ‘wasted’ subsidies, and use it to provide systematic evidence on the misallocation of carbon offsets in the Clean Development Mechanism, the world’s largest carbon offset programme.



Climate and disaster risk insurance in low income countries: Reflections on the importance of indicators and frameworks for monitoring performance and impact

Working paper by Architesh Panda, Swenja Surminski on 7 Sep 2020

How to effectively monitor and evaluate the use of climate and disaster risk insurance remains unclear. This paper reviews how these instruments are currently evaluated and finds a need for transparent monitoring and evaluation frameworks to enable greater scrutiny and to assist those funding, demanding or supplying insurance, with evidence from India and Africa.



Cities, climate change and chronic heat exposure

Policy publication by Patrick Curran, Christian Siderius, Tanya Singh on 6 Sep 2019

Climate change will lead to increases in the occurrence of chronic heat exposure over longer durations and there is an urgent need to focus on managing the risks this poses, as well as the immediate risks from shorter-lived heat events. This policy brief looks at the problem with a focus on developing and emerging economies, and provides recommendations for action by government, utilities, property developers and investors, development support and finance organisations. read more »


Adding fuel to fire? Social spillovers and spatial disparities in the adoption of LPG in India

Working paper by Suchita Srinivasan, Stefano Carattini on 8 Feb 2019

This paper investigates the role of ‘social spillovers’ – people learning from and imitating the behaviour of other people – in the adoption of new technologies, with a focus on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in India. The conclusions are important for policymakers seeking to hasten the switch to cleaner energy sources in developing countries. read more »


Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Research article by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 26 Jun 2018

Knowledge about regional and local climate change can inform climate risk assessments and adaptation decisions. However, estimates of future precipitation change at the regional and local level are deeply uncertain for many parts of the world. A novel methodology was developed that uses climate processes and expert elicitation to build narratives of future regional precipitation […]


Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Working paper by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 12 Jan 2018

The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise deep uncertainty in future rainfall change. The method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery river basin in Karnataka, Southern India.