Publications


The Role of Risk Perceptions in Climate Change Communication: A Media Analysis of the UK Winter Floods 2015/2016

Book Chapter by Viktoria Cologna, Rosalind Bark, Jouni Paavola on 20 Jan 2018

In the winter 2015/2016 a series of storms resulted in widespread flooding in northern England, damaging hundreds of properties, disrupting transport and exposing public contempt of flood risk management. The flooding was widely covered in the media. This chapter develops a methodological framework to conceptualise factors influencing risk perception related to flood events and discusses […]


Understanding interpersonal violence: the impact of temperatures in Mexico

Working paper by François Cohen, Fidel Gonzalez on 19 Jan 2018

This research investigates how and why high temperature has an effect on criminality, using data from Mexico. It suggests that the additional crimes committed on hot days are due to changes in time use and habits by both criminals and their victims during times of high temperature. read more »




Socially Just Triple-Wins? A Framework for Evaluating the Social Justice Implications of Climate Compatible Development

Research article by Ben Wood, Lindsay Stringer, Andy Dougill, Claire Quinn on 18 Jan 2018

Climate compatible development (CCD) aims to help people improve their lives in the face of climate threats without exacerbating these threats for current and future generations. It is proving an attractive concept to both academics and practitioners. However, the social justice implications of CCD have not yet been comprehensively explored and an absence of adequate […]


Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socio-Economic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

Research article by Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, David Stainforth on 18 Jan 2018

Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this […]




Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

Working paper by Suraje Dessai, Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal, David Stainforth on 12 Jan 2018

The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise deep uncertainty in future rainfall change. The method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery river basin in Karnataka, Southern India.