New scientific evidence on climate change and slow progress on emissions abatement together indicate the future holds significant climate risk.
The core objective of this theme is to research how best to manage climate risk in the context of uncertain and potentially rapid climate change. An essential aspect is, by implication, the production of climate information or what the community of climate scientists is increasingly framing as “climate services” (WMO 2009).
This theme extends our work on the evaluation of the predictive ability of climate models using a novel analogy with the theory of chaotic systems. It also builds on Phase-One research that established the conceptual/normative basis of sound adaptation planning, to consider what is the capacity of key actors to adapt in the face or uncertainty and ‘tail risks’, and what are the implications of this for mainstreaming adaptation?
The theme leader for Managing climate risks and uncertainties and strengthening climate services is Simon Dietz
This theme is comprised of 3 research projects:
Project 4a – Institutions, climate services and adaptation
Project 4b – Climate change, non-linear systems and economic decisions
Project 4c – Integrated sustainability science for pro-poor climate policy